79th Annual New Zealand Indian Association Conference

Saturday 9 April 2005

Greetings. Welcome to Christchurch and your 79th Conference.

This will be one of the last conferences where you can expect to enjoy yourselves on your own. Even next time I think I can predict you will find you have got a whole new set of people applying to be your friends. They will come from the world of politics and business. They will be amongst the first to have realised that this is the start of the Asian Century.

The reality for the future is that within 15 years, two of the main, if not the main world economic and political powers on the planet will be China and India. The media seem to have got onto China, so far here they seem to have missed the amazing changes shaping up for India.

I thought this morning it might be fun to lay out some of what these changes might mean. My source for this show of stunning knowledge is that well known liberal organisation, the CIA. One of their offshoots recently put out a piece called "Mapping the Global Future out to 2020." This report says that the rise of India as an economic superpower is virtually inevitable. The only things that could stop it are either massive internal disruption or the collapse of the global economy. Otherwise it is inevitable.

The report maps out a future in which India will turn out to be one of the world's technology leaders. India is a major investor in research and development in areas like nano, bio, information and materials technology.

According to the CIA, this will bring India to the forefront of what will turn out to be a whole new world. Expect to see the old ideas of East and West, developed and non developed worlds melt away.

The report says the impact will be similar to the advent of a united Germany in the 19th century and the all powerful United States in the 20th century. It will transform the geopolitical landscape with impacts potentially as dramatic as those of the past two centuries. It looks very much as if this century will be seen as the time when Asia comes into its own.

All in all it’s a picture that I predict is going to find you getting a whole new set of friends knocking on your door. I could not think of a more major set of changes for a community to confront than those ahead for the Indian community here and in the rest of the world.

It is another amazing major change that very few of us would have predicted even 20 years ago. It is a reminder that really the only constant is in fact change.

Anyway, I'm delighted to be here…..ahead of the crowd..... and hope you have a great visit to Christchurch.