Future Population Growth[6]

Statistics New Zealand have recently provided the City Council with revised population projections for Christchurch (January 1996) which take into account the higher levels of net migration recorded in recent years[7]. These projections suggest the population will continue to grow over the next two decades, reaching 354,700 people by 2016. However, the rate at which growth occurs will gradually decline from an annual average increase of 1.5 percent in 1991-1996 to 0.4 percent in 2011-2016. This reflects the expected decline in natural increase from 7,490 people to 3,480 people during this period (medium projections) and the gradual decline of migration from overseas. Statistics New Zealand predicts the current level of migration is unlikely to be sustained given historic trends and uncertainty in relation to central government’s immigration policy. Accordingly they have projected a decline in net migration from 15,500 people for the 1991-1996 period to 4,000 people in 2011-2016. Despite this reduction, the net migration component of population growth is expected to remain high over the next twenty years. 

 

Source: Statistics New Zealand, 1996 Population Projections (Unofficial) 

 
Where is Growth Occurring within the City?

Official information identifying the location of population growth within the City is not available between each Census. However, building consent information does provide an indication annually of how the City is expanding to accommodate it’s growing population. 

 

During the last five years, the greatest amount of building activity has occurred in areas on the residential fringe of the City including Oaklands, Parklands, Belfast and North Beach (Figure 1.3, (55 kbytes)). 

 

Since 1991, new units or apartments comprise the majority of this residential growth. Often these units have been built on sections where the existing home is retained or where the structure is removed and replaced by several new units. This process can result in increasing population densities in the areas concerned. 

 

There is a clear distinction between the location of new units and new dwellings within the City. As Figure 1.4 (48 kbytes) shows, most single dwellings have been constructed in the outer areas of the City, particularly in new subdivisions at Oaklands, Parklands, Hawthornden, Marshland, Travis, Templeton, Styx and Belfast. In most cases these suburbs are areas of lower population density. 

 

In contrast, the majority of units or apartments have been constructed in the inner suburbs such as Riccarton, Avon Loop and Merivale (Figure 1.5 (42 kbytes)). Other areas include Sydenham, Sockburn, and Barrington North. It is likely the population density of these areas is increasing as this form of construction grows in popularity. 

 

Over the next twenty years, the Council, through its City Plan, intends to accommodate projected population growth by encouraging urban consolidation. The aim of urban consolidation is to achieve a gradual rise in average number of households per hectare. This objective will be achieved by first utilising land within the City for development (i.e. redevelopment, infill and use of existing greenfield sites) in preference 

 

to allowing low density urban sprawl on the rural fringe of the City. As a result population density is expected to increase in many suburbs as a result of infill housing and redevelopment of existing sites. This includes an inner ring of parts of St Albans, Merivale, Riccarton, Addington, Sydenham, Waltham, Phillipstown, Linwood, Richmond and Edgeware. Higher densities are also expected around suburban focal points such as the New Brighton and Papanui shopping centres. 

 

To also help meet the expected demand for land in the future the City Plan also has rezoned around 430 hectares of land on the fringe of the city for residential use. However this land will not become available for several years. It is expected that rezoning in the new City Plan will result in significant population growth in the suburbs of Burwood and Mairehau in the northeast of Christchurch. Some smaller areas of new growth are also provided for in the northwest and on the Port Hills. 

 

The recent emergence of a higher population growth path is being closely monitored by the Council. If the present trend persists for another two to three years, consideration may need to be given to the allocation of additional land for residential and possibly industrial and commercial use. The Council will be in a better position to consider this possibility following the release of detailed results from the recent Census of Population and Dwellings in early 1997. 

 

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