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Introduction
Christchurch City is the largest urban centre in the South Island and has the second largest population of all New Zealand’s territorial local authorities. In March 1996, the City had a total population of 313,969 people (provisional [1]). Since the beginning of the decade, the City’s population has risen sharply. The recent level of population growth is unrivalled since the early 1960's.
The latest period of growth is the result of increased immigration from overseas and higher net migration from other parts of the country. This trend is partly attributable to central government policy during recent years, which has attracted increasing numbers of immigrants to New Zealand and a strong local economy which has provided favourable employment and business opportunities.
Over the next twenty years (1996-2016) the City’s population is projected to continue to grow. While the age structure of the City’s population is also expected to undergo major changes during this period. There will be fewer young people and increasing numbers of older residents. This is attributable to a reduction in fertility rates, improvements in life expectancy and the passage of the large post war baby boom generation into older age groups.
The growing population will have a major impact on the City’s wider environment (ie. social, physical, natural and economic). It is expected there will be increased demand for the use of existing natural resources such as water, land and energy. Parks, open spaces, and other natural and physical assets are also expected to face increased usage. Building activity and business development are forecast to grow while demands on infrastructure such as roads, transport, water and waste systems will increase to accommodate these activities.
The City’s ageing population may also increase the demand for specialist services and facilities within the City. As more people survive to older ages, there is likely to be greater demand for suitable housing for the elderly and for appropriate health and social services. The ageing population may also influence the structure of families as they are increasingly required to take on the responsibility for care of elderly members. Alternatively this role may be performed by public or private elderly persons homes.
The following discussion on the City’s people is divided into two parts. The first part describes the City’s current and projected population, its age structure and the factors which contribute to demographic changes. It also highlights the implications of projected population change, providing the human context for the subsequent discussion of trends in the natural, physical and economic environments.
The second part of this discussion examines other aspects of people’s lives including personal safety, public health, education, housing, and culture and recreation.
Statistics New Zealand has recently released a limited amount of provisional information from the 1996 Census of Population and Dwellings. Where appropriate this information is used in conjunction with earlier census data, however, a full picture of population growth, demographic change and household growth during the last five years in Christchurch will not be available until 1997.